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fertility_and_religious_practice [2015/11/17 11:05]
marri2
fertility_and_religious_practice [2017/11/30 15:10] (current)
marri [3. The Role of Religious Practice]
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 ==========Fertility and Religious Practice========== ==========Fertility and Religious Practice==========
  
-In the last several decades, the [[state_of_the_family_in_america|intact married religious family]] has eroded ​as the cultural norm in the Western world.  ​Its replacement—extra-marital and non-marital sexual practices, a rejection of childbearing,​ and areligious sentiments—has prompted a fertility crisis. The continuance of Western nations and peoples depends on the restoration of [[effects_of_religious_practice_on_society|religious worship]] and sexual mores.  ​+In the last several decades, the [[state_of_the_family_in_america|intact married religious family]] has diminished ​as the cultural norm in the Western world.  ​What weakened it—extra-marital and non-marital sexual practices, a rejection of childbearing,​ and areligious sentiments—has prompted a fertility crisis. The continuance of Western nations and peoples depends on the restoration of [[effects_of_religious_practice_on_society|religious worship]] and sexual mores.  ​
  
 =====1. Fertility Trends in Europe===== =====1. Fertility Trends in Europe=====
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 {{ :​fertility_in_europe.png?​direct&​400 |Total Fertility Rates in Europe}} {{ :​fertility_in_europe.png?​direct&​400 |Total Fertility Rates in Europe}}
  
-The below chart from 2001 illustrates the difference between the attained fertility of European women depending on their age,((A newly formed marriage of a 20 year-old woman receives nearly a full weight (100 percent) on the y-axis, as that marriage has the potential to bring many children into the world if contraceptive means are not employed. A new marriage formed by a 50 year-old woman would receive no weight (0 percent) as that marriage statistically will not bring children into the world. \\ See Henry Potrykus and Patrick Fagan, //Marriage, Contraception & The Future of Western Peoples//, Marriage and Religion Research Institute (2011). Available at [[http://downloads.frc.org/EF/EF11K50.pdf]].)) compared to their potential fertility (which was gauged by the actual fertility of Hutterite women).((The upper, blue curve in this chart is a sociologically---not biologically---determined potential fertility. It is the fertility achieved by an Anabaptist sect settled in the north-central United States which adhered to a religious prohibition of contraceptives. This depiction of high fertility also represents with some faithfulness the traditional delay of marriage (and fertility in marriage) seen in Western societies.)) The number of children actually born (red area) is a much smaller percent of the number of potential children (blue area). ​+The below chart from 2001 illustrates the difference between the attained fertility of European women depending on their age,((A newly formed marriage of a 20 year-old woman receives nearly a full weight (100 percent) on the y-axis, as that marriage has the potential to bring many children into the world if contraceptive means are not employed. A new marriage formed by a 50 year-old woman would receive no weight (0 percent) as that marriage statistically will not bring children into the world. \\ See Henry Potrykus and Patrick Fagan, //Marriage, Contraception & The Future of Western Peoples//, Marriage and Religion Research Institute (2011). Available at [[http://marri.us/research/​research-papers/​marriage-contraception-the-future-of-western-peoples/]].)) compared to their potential fertility (which was gauged by the actual fertility of Hutterite women).((The upper, blue curve in this chart is a sociologically---not biologically---determined potential fertility. It is the fertility achieved by an Anabaptist sect settled in the north-central United States which adhered to a religious prohibition of contraceptives. This depiction of high fertility also represents with some faithfulness the traditional delay of marriage (and fertility in marriage) seen in Western societies.)) The number of children actually born (red area) is a much smaller percent of the number of potential children (blue area). ​
  
 {{ :​married_female_fertility.png?​direct&​350 |Married Female Fertility}} {{ :​married_female_fertility.png?​direct&​350 |Married Female Fertility}}
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 {{ :​total_fertility_rate-_predicted_v._actual.png?​direct&​600 |Total Fertility Rate: Predicted vs. Actual}} {{ :​total_fertility_rate-_predicted_v._actual.png?​direct&​600 |Total Fertility Rate: Predicted vs. Actual}}
  
-However, as the below chart from the "​International Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism"​((Ijaz Shafi, Gilani, Rushna Shahid, and Irene Zuettel, "​Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism,"​ WIN-Gallup //Gallup International//​ (2012). Available at [[http://​www.wingia.com/​web/​files/​news/​14/​file/​14.pdf]]. +However, as the below chart from the "​International Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism"​((Ijaz Shafi, Gilani, Rushna Shahid, and Irene Zuettel, "​Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism,"​ WIN-Gallup //Gallup International//​ (2012). Available at [[http://​www.wingia.com/​web/​files/​news/​14/​file/​14.pdf]].)) illustrates,​ most countries are experiencing a significant decline in rates of religiosity (not exactly the same as weekly religious worship, but a closely related indicator).
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-This entry draws heavily from John D. Mueller, //Redeeming Economics: Rediscovering the Missing Element//, (Wilmington,​ DE: ISI Books, 2010) and [[http://​downloads.frc.org/​EF/​EF11K50.pdf| "​Marriage,​ Contraception & The Future of Western Peoples"​]].)) illustrates,​ most countries are experiencing a significant decline in rates of religiosity (not exactly the same as weekly religious worship, but a closely related indicator).+
  
 The implication of these data and insights is significant:​ Europe (and other nations) face the choice of a return to worshipping God or gradually declining. ​ The implication of these data and insights is significant:​ Europe (and other nations) face the choice of a return to worshipping God or gradually declining. ​
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 {{ :​wcf_poor_communities_education.png?​direct&​450 |Neighborhood Poverty and Academic On-Track Performance}} {{ :​wcf_poor_communities_education.png?​direct&​450 |Neighborhood Poverty and Academic On-Track Performance}}
  
-=====4. A New Social Policy====+=====4. Trends Among Particular Religious Denominations===== 
 +Although Christianity is the largest religious denomination in the world, declining fertility rates—particularly in Europe((Hackett,​ Conrade and David McClendon, "​Christians Remain World'​s Largest Religious Group, But They Are Declining in Europe,"​ Pew Research Center (April 2017), available at [[http://​www.pewresearch.org/​fact-tank/​2017/​04/​05/​christians-remain-worlds-largest-religious-group-but-they-are-declining-in-europe/​]].))—indicate that this may no longer be the case by 2060.((Lipka,​ Michael and Conrad Hackett, "Why Muslims Are the World'​s Fastest Growing Religious Group,"​ Pew Research Center (April 2017), available at [[http://​www.pewresearch.org/​fact-tank/​2017/​04/​06/​why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/​]].)) Religious Nones are also projected to decline as a share of the world’s population due to their exceptionally low fertility rate.((Pew Research Center, April 5, 2017, “The Changing Global Religious Landscape,​” available at [[http://​assets.pewresearch.org/​wp-content/​uploads/​sites/​11/​2017/​04/​07092755/​FULL-REPORT-WITH-APPENDIXES-A-AND-B-APRIL-3.pdf]].)) Muslims, who had the highest fertility rate of all religious denominations and made up roughly 31 percent of all births from 2010-2015, will likely replace Christians.((Pew Research Center, April 5, 2017, “The Changing Global Religious Landscape,​” available at [[http://​assets.pewresearch.org/​wp-content/​uploads/​sites/​11/​2017/​04/​07092755/​FULL-REPORT-WITH-APPENDIXES-A-AND-B-APRIL-3.pdf]]. 
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 +This entry draws heavily from John D. Mueller, //Redeeming Economics: Rediscovering the Missing Element//, (Wilmington,​ DE: ISI Books, 2010) and [[http://​marri.us/​research/​research-papers/​marriage-contraception-the-future-of-western-peoples/​| "​Marriage,​ Contraception & The Future of Western Peoples"​]].)) 
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 +=====5. A New Social Policy====
  
 On every outcome measured by the U.S. statistical system---and frequency of worship is one of the variables measured in at least eight different major federal surveys---the more frequent the rate of worship, ​ the better the persons tend to do on positive outcomes. For undesirable outcomes the opposite holds: the more frequent people worship, the less frequent their negative outcomes. On every outcome measured by the U.S. statistical system---and frequency of worship is one of the variables measured in at least eight different major federal surveys---the more frequent the rate of worship, ​ the better the persons tend to do on positive outcomes. For undesirable outcomes the opposite holds: the more frequent people worship, the less frequent their negative outcomes.